Seconds away from glory. Seconds. It takes 60 of those to create a minute.
About 20 seconds separated this space from successfully forecasting all three of our picks from last week in the fourth weekend of the Texas High School playoffs.
>Picking Aledo over Denton Ryan? We felt confident. However, there’s always been something about these games that provides uneasiness.
Then there was the first half. The Bearcats did whatever they wanted. A 20-yard run here. A 40-yard run there. Converting 3rd-and-long was not an issue. Aledo built a stunning and overwhelming 33-3 lead at halftime. This was done.
In fact, the deliberate nature of how Ryan’s offense operated in the second half gave the impression that it was time to call it a season. Aledo won this 5A Division I Region I final easily, 43-17.
While we played up the series of Aledo now leading 5-3, you really could look at it and say the Bearcats have won five of the last six. Ryan’s first two wins came in the early 2000s.
>Picking All Saints over Houston Second Baptist for the TAPPS 5A Division II state title? No second thoughts.
The Saints were going to have to help the Eagles. Well, they kind of did with two turnovers and trailed this game 10-7 at halftime.
Led by QB Gavin Beard, this proficient passing game unleashed its fury with 21 points in the third quarter. All Saints won, 34-16.
>Picking Paradise over Peaster? If you’ll recall, I mentioned last week how this likely was going to be a defensive struggle in the second meeting between these district rivals. It would be tight. The first one to 20 would win. I leaned toward Paradise.
Sure enough, we got the defensive struggle. We did not have a winning score with 20. It could have been 14. It turned out to be 17.
Thanks to a gotta-have-it two-minute scoring drive, the Greyhounds did get it. They scored from inside the 1-yard-line with 19 seconds to play. Peaster won, 17-14.
A gut punch for the Panthers. But huge accolades to Peaster for advancing to the state 3A Division I state semifinals for the first time in school history.
With that, here’s where we stand.
Last week: 2-1
Overall: 27-5
The NTX Varsity Sports coverage area is down to one last team. Aledo. The No. 1 Bearcats play Friday night. Time to break this one down.
No. 1 Aledo (14-0) vs. No. 2 Frisco Lone Star (14-0); Class 5A Division I State Semifinal, 7:00 p.m. Friday, Newsom Stadium, Mansfield (Radio: KTFW 92.1 FM; Pregame show at 6:20 p.m.): The winner advances to the state championship game at 7:00 p.m. on Dec. 19 at AT&T Stadium. It faces the winner of the other state semifinal between No. 3 Smithson Valley and No. 5 Port Arthur Memorial. Those two are also playing Friday in Katy.
Now, to the evaluation. There is such a contrast of styles between the Bearcats and the Rangers. With the exception of Aledo’s 15-14 escape at Ryan in October, neither of these teams has truly been challenged.
Should this one turn into a tight contest, one element to monitor is which team can keep its nerve when it’s on the line.
This one should come down to who can record enough stops. For Aledo, this may be the best defense I’ve seen in the 20 seasons covering this program. The numbers – 6.8 ppg, 175 ypg – tell part of the story. Yes, they are impressive.
However, the key is how technically sound this unit is. Defenders willingly run to the ball. They are well drilled. And the defensive line dictates a lot of what will happen.
That is what needs to happen for the Bearcats Friday against the best offense it’s going to face. The Rangers are lethal averaging better than 44 points and 518 yards per game.
Sophomore QB Trey Wright dominates. He’s recorded 4,800 passing and rushing yards and 50 touchdowns. The Lone Star skill group is electric. Wide Receiver Davian Groce, a Florida signee, is over 1,100 yards. The running back combination of Baylor commit Karece Hoyt and Isaiah Massey have combined for more than 1,400 yards.
Last week, Lone Star obliterated Highland Park with more than 700 yards of total offense and made the Scots pay for three interceptions.
Now, you can see where this is going. Part of me believes Aledo is going to have to have the mind of playing two defenses. First, there’s the regular kind. Second, it could come down to ball control. Several long drives to keep the Rangers off the field.
Ultimately, the high school game comes down to the offensive and defensive fronts. Aledo units overwhelm. From what I know, Lone Star is solid on both sides – you have to be if you’ve made it this far – but not at the Bearcats level.
Mix in the Bearcats being sound with the ball and QB Lincoln Tubbs making solid decisions. I believe the Bearcats win a tight one and return to AT&T Stadium to play for at 13th state title.
Pick: Aledo
Let’s win it and talk about a state title. With or without Aledo, this space will pick all the 2A-6A state title games. Call it a celebration of the 2025 season.