Texas State Championship Football Picks

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By Kevin Lonnquist

NTX Varsity Sports Columnist

The weekend before Christmas represents two important timestamps on the Texas calendar. First, it’s that last dash to the store, shop, online website or wherever else to finish the Christmas shopping.

But second and more importantly, the state celebrates the sport it loves – Texas High School football – with the state championship games for all classifications.

From Wednesday morning through late Saturday evening at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas crowns 12 state champions from Six-man Division I through Class 6A Division II.

The UIL’s marriage with the Dallas Cowboys to present these games in this venue since the early 2010s has been beyond perfect. The ultimate site for these games. Plus, plenty of activities to partake in before and after the games.

Even though Aledo just missed returning – I’ll get to that below – I can tell you covering state title games there with the Bearcats 11 times has been a blessing and unforgettable mixed with good fortune.

To celebrate, we’re going to pick all these games from Class 2A through 6A. It’s a little hard to gage the Six-man games. However, there’s “Texas’ team” in Gordon, which will start the parade at 11:00 a.m. Wednesday.

This community suffered terribly at the hand of a tornado back in May. Heavy damage ripped through the community and the high school. For that program to become a beacon of hope and to play for a state title has future Hollywood movie screen play written all over it.

 

 

 

Before we get to the picks, just a review of last week’s selection of Aledo over Frisco Lone Star in the Class 5A Division I state semifinal. If you did not have a vested interest, you saw an epic contest.

For me, the 28-point fourth quarter comeback by Lone Star was more about the Rangers’ resolve than the Bearcats’ collapse. Lone Star stunned the Bearcats, 56-52, scoring the game winner with 30 seconds to play.

The game always comes down to belief, urgency and the will to win. Frankly, the Rangers just had a little more of it. Give them credit.

It’s sports. It’s life. Sometimes, things just don’t work out for the team you follow day in and day out. We live in a world where the obsession is more about failure than success. That’s wrong. You should always make it about accomplishment.

There’s disappointment felt for Aledo head coach Robby Jones and his team. But when you lose to a team that had the same record as Aledo did prior to the game starting (both were 14-0), someone is going to be crushed at the end.

With that, let’s get to these picks. A reminder these games can be seen on Victory-plus.

 

Last week: 0-1

Overall: 27-6

 

Class 2A Division I State Championship; Hamilton (13-2) vs. Joaquin (11-4); 7:00 p.m. Wednesday: Joaquin could be considered the uninvited guest after it shocked Refugio last week. Hamilton has quietly gone about its work. I was impressed with Hamilton after it topped Mildred in the area round.

 

Pick: Hamilton

 

Class 2A Division II State Championship; No. 2 Muenster (13-2) vs. No. 1 Shiner (15-0); 11:00 a.m., Thursday: This is a rematch from the 2024 meeting where Muenster won, 36-29, scoring the game winner with less than one minute to play. Flip a coin. I think Shiner exacts payback.

 

Pick: Shiner

 

Class 3A Division I State Championship; Grandview (13-2) vs. No. 10 Yoakum (13-2); 3:00 p.m., Thursday: Can’t deny the Zebras’ path to reach this title game. They have done everything right. They are two-time state champions in 2019 and 2020. But I’m going to lean toward Yoakum. The Bulldogs have playoff wins over No. 3 Columbus and No. 4 Llano. That has to mean something.

 

Pick: Yoakum

 

Class 3A Division II State Championship; No. 2 Wall (15-0) vs. No. 4 Newton (14-1); 7:00 p.m., Thursday: Wall is making its first appearance in a state title game since 2013. Newton is a 5-five state champion. There’s no way to say one team has the advantage over the other. However, I’m going to go with the Eagles.

 

Pick: Newton

 

Class 4A Division I State Championship; No. 2 Stephenville (15-0) vs. No. 3 Kilgore (14-1); 11:00 a.m. Friday: Here’s a stat for you. This is the Yellow Jackets’ seventh appearance in the state championship. They are 6-0 in the previous six state title appearances. Nothing against Kilgore. I’m going with Erath County.

 

Pick: Stephenville

 

Class 4A Division II State Championship; No. 1 Carthage (15-0) vs. West-Orange Stark (12-3); 3:00 p.m. Friday: First of all, it’s great to the see the WOS from the Golden Triangle back to the state championship. Many weren’t expecting to see them here. However, Carthage is going for its 11th state championship – Remember, Aledo has 12 – and while the Bulldogs may not be as sharp defensively, they just know how to win.

 

Pick: Carthage

 

Class 5A Division I State Championship; No. 2 Frisco Lone Star (15-0) vs. No. 3 Smithson Valley (14-1); 7:00 p.m. Friday: Here’s your dad joke of the week. The Rangers are going to be state champions. Both teams are nicknamed the Rangers. I had a first-hand look at Lone Star QB Trey Wright and beast wide receiver Davian Groce. If Smithson Valley has the perfect plan tip your cap. But I don’t think SV can stop Lone Star.

 

Pick: Lone Star

 

Class 5A Division II State Championship; No. 1 SOC (14-1) vs. No.2 Richmond Randle (15-0); 11:00 a.m. Saturday: Let the South Dallas County march begin. You could not ask for a better matchup. This is a rematch from last year when Randle won, 38-35. You’re probably going to get the same kind of game from these two where it comes down to the final moment. I’ll lean to SOC.

 

Pick: SOC

 

Class 6A Division I State Championship: No. 8 Duncanville (12-1) vs. No. 15 Galena Park North Shore (13-2); 3:00 p.m.: How good is this? This is the sixth meeting between these two historic powers to meet in a state championship game. The Mustangs have won three of five. The Panthers have won the last two. What do you do? Part of me really wants to pick GPNS but I can’t do it.

 

Pick: Duncanville

 

Class 6A Division II State Championship: DeSoto (12-3) vs. No. 16 Sheldon King (13-2); 7:00 p.m.: King is making its first appearance in a state championship game. But this might be one of the best coaching jobs DeSoto coach Claude Mathis has put together. Plus, he has a dominant running back in junior SaRod Baker who is just lighting it up this postseason.

 

Pick: DeSoto

 

Let’s win them all. Next week, we’ll highlight some of the great moments of the 2025 high school football season. Until then, enjoy the games.

Author

  • Kevin Lonnquist is a veteran sports journalist and broadcaster with nearly four decades of experience covering athletics across North Texas. A former beat writer for The Dallas Morning News and Arlington Morning News, he reported on the Texas Rangers from 1996–2000, breaking major stories on player contracts and team moves. For the past 20 years, Kevin has served as the voice of the Aledo Bearcats on KTFW 92.1 Hank FM, while continuing to write and analyze high school sports across the DFW area. He brings a seasoned perspective and deep passion for storytelling to NTX Varsity.

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